2021
Munch, SB, WS Lee, M Walsh, T Hurst, BA Wasserman, M Mangel, and S Salinas (2021) A latitudinal gradient in thermal transgenerational plasticity and a test of theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 288, 20210797
Brias,A and SB Munch (2021) Ecosystem based multi-species management using Empirical Dynamic Programming. Ecological Modelling 441: 109423
Johnson, B, M Gomez, SB Munch (2021) Leveraging spatial information to forecast nonlinear ecological dynamics Methods in Ecology and Evolution 12: 266-279
Giron-Nava, A, E Ezcurra, A Brias, E Velarde, E Deyle, AM Cisneros-Montemayor, SB Munch, G Sugihara, O Aburto-Oropeza. (2021). Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 78: 623-630
2020
Landy,JA, A Oschmann, SB Munch, MR Walsh. (2020). Ancestral genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity underlies rapid evolutionary changes in resurrected populations of waterfleas PNAS 117: 32535-32544
Gil, MA, ML Baskett, SB Munch, AM Hein. (2020). Fast behavioral feedbacks make ecosystems sensitive to pace and not just magnitude of anthropogenic environmental change PNAS 117: 25580-25589.
TL Rogers, SB Munch, SD Stewart, EP Palkovacs, A Giron‐Nava (2020) Trophic control changes with season and nutrient loading in lakes. Ecology Letters 23:1287-1297.
B. Oke, C. J. Cunningham, P. A. H. Westley, M. L. Baskett, S. M. Carlson, J. Clark, A. P. Hendry, V. A. Karatayev, N. W. Kendall, J. Kibele, H. K. Kindsvater, K. M. Kobayashi, B. Lewis, S. Munch, J. D. Reynolds, G. K. Vick, and E. P. Palkovacs . (2020). Recent declines in salmon body size impact ecosystems and fisheries. Nature Communications 11:4155
Giron-Nava, A., G. Sugihara, S.B. Munch, A. Johnson, E. Deyle, C. James, E. Saberski, O. Aburto-Oropeza. (2020). Circularity in fisheries data weakens real world prediction. Scientific Reports. Sci. Rep. 10, 6977
Munch, S.B., Brias, A., Sugihara, G. and Rogers, T.L. (2020). Frequently asked questions about nonlinear dynamics and empirical dynamic modelling. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 77(4), pp.1463-1479.
Rogers, TL and SB Munch (2020). Hidden similarities in the dynamics of a weakly synchronous marine metapopulation. PNAS 117: 479-485.
Lee, W. S., Salinas, S., Lee, Y. R., Siskidis, J. A., Mangel, M., & Munch, S. B. (2020). Thermal transgenerational effects remain after two generations. Ecology and Evolution, 10:11296–11303.
2019
Munch, SB, A Brias, G Sugihara, and T Rogers. Frequently asked questions about nonlinear dynamics and empirical dynamic modelling. ICES J. Mar. Sci.
Therkildsen, NO, AP Wilder, DO Conover, SB Munch, H Baumann, S Palumbi (2019) Contrasting genomic shifts underlie parallel phenotypic evolution in response to fishing. Science 365: 487-490.
Heiner, M., SB Munch, A Kottas (2019) Structured priors for sparse probability vectors with application to model selection in Markov chains. Statistics and Computing 29: 1077-1093.
Gao, J and SB Munch (2019) A function‐valued trait approach to estimating the genetic basis of size at age and its potential role in fisheries‐induced evolution. Evol. Appl. 12:964-976.
Pennekamp, F, AC Iles, J Garland, G Brennan, U Brose, U Gaedke, U Jacob, P Kratina, B Matthews, SB Munch, M Novak, GM Palamara, BC Rall, B Rosenbaum, A Tabi, C Ward, R Williams, H Ye, OL Petchey (2019) The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting Ecol. Monogr. 89:e01359.
Salinas, S, SE Irvine, CL Schertzing, SQ Golden, SB Munch (2019) Trait variation in extreme thermal environments under constant and fluctuating temperatures. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B 374: 20180177.
Goos, J. M., Swain, C. J., Munch, S. B. and Walsh, M. R. (2019), Maternal diet and age alter direct and indirect relationships between life history traits across multiple generations. Funct Ecol. 33 (3), 491-502
2018
Martin, BT, Munch, SB, and Hein, AM (2018) Reverse-engineering ecological theory from data. Proc. R. Soc. B 285:20180422
Munch, SB, A. Giron-Nava, G. Sugihara (2018) Nonlinear dynamics and noise in fisheries recruitment: A global meta‐analysis. Fish and Fisheries 19: 964-973.
Pennekamp, F., A. Iles, J. Garland, G. Brennan, U. Brose, U. Gaedke, U. Jacob, P. Kratina, B. Matthews, SB Munch, M. Novak, G. M. Palamara, B. Rall, B. Rosenbaum, A. Tabi, C. Ward, R. Williams, H. Ye, O. Petchey. (2018). The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting. bioRxiv, 350017.
2017
Mumby, PJ, JN Sanchirico, K Broad, MW Beck, P Tyedmers,M Morikawa,TA Okey, LB Crowder, EA Fulton, D Kelso, JA Kleypas, SB Munch, P Glynn, K Matthews, J Lubchenco (2017) Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change. Global Change Biol. 2017: 1–14
Poynor, V and SB Munch (2017) Combining functional data with hierarchical Gaussian process models. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 24:175–199
Thorson, J.T., Munch, S.B. and Swain, D.P. (2017). Estimating partial regulation in spatio-temporal models of community dynamics. Ecology, 98:1277-1289.
Lee, WS, M Mangel, SB Munch (2017) Developmental order of a secondary sexual trait reflects gonadal development in male sheepshead minnows (Cyprinodon variegatus) Evol. Ecol. Res. 18: 531-538
Thorson, J.T., Munch, S.B., Cope, J.M. and Gao, J., (2017). Predicting life history parameters for all fishes worldwide. Ecol. Appl. 27: 2262-2276
Munch, S. B., Poynor, V., & Arriaza, J. L. (2017). Circumventing structural uncertainty: A Bayesian perspective on nonlinear forecasting for ecology. Ecol. Comp. 32:134-143
2016
Cameron, H., Monro, K., Malerba, M., Munch, S. and Marshall, D. (2016). Why do larger mothers produce larger offspring? A test of classic theory. Ecology, 97: 3452-3459.
Vincenzi, S, AJ Crivelli, S Munch, HJ Skaug, and M Mangel. (2016). Trade‐offs between accuracy and interpretability in von Bertalanffy random‐effects models of growth. Ecol. Appl. 26:1535-1552
Walsh, MR; Broyles, W; Beston, SM; Munch, SB (2016) Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii) Proc. R. Soc. B. 283:20161075.
Deyle, E.R., May, R.M., Munch, S.B. and Sugihara, G., (2016), Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time. Proc. R. Soc. B 283: 20152258
Walsh, MR, T Castoe, J Holmes, M Packer, K Biles, M Walsh, SB Munch, and D Post. (2016). Local adaptation in transgenerational responses to predators Proc. R. Soc. B 283: 20152271
Velásquez‐Tibatá, J., Graham, C.H. and Munch, S.B., (2016). Using measurement error models to account for georeferencing error in species distribution models. Ecography. 39:305-316
2015
Perretti, CT; Munch, SB; Fogarty, MJ; Sugihara, G; (2015) Global evidence for non-random dynamics in fish recruitment. arXiv:1509.01434. :.
Walsh, MR , F Cooley, K Biles, and SB Munch. (2015). Predator-induced phenotypic plasticity within-and across-generations: a challenge for theory? Proc. R. Soc. B 282:20142205
Roberts, K.J., Colle, B.A., Georgas, N. and Munch, S.B., (2015). A Regression-based approach for cool-season storm surge predictions along the New York/New Jersey coast.J. Appl.Meteor. Clim. 54: 1773-1791
Boettiger, C., M. Mangel, and SB Munch. (2015).. Avoiding tipping points in fisheries management through Gaussian process dynamic programming. Proc. Roy. Soc. B: 282: 20141631.
Perez, KO and SB Munch. (2015). Sustained costs of growth and the trajectory of recovery. Func. Ecol. 29:393-403
Gao, J. and S.B. Munch. (2015). Does reproductive investment decrease telomere length in Menidia menidia? PloS One e0125674.
Perretti, C.T. and Munch, S.B., (2015). On estimating the reliability of ecological forecasts.J.Theor. Biol.,372, pp.211-216.
Thorson, JT, JN Ianelli, SB Munch, K Ono, PD Spencer, and R Vinbrooke. (2015). Spatial delay-difference models for estimating spatiotemporal variation in juvenile production and population abundance. Can. J.Fish.Aquat.Sci. 72:1897-1915
Salinas, S. and Munch, S.B., (2015). Where should I send it? Optimizing the submission decision process.PloS One,10(1) e0115451
2014
Essington, TE, and Munch, SB. (2014). Trade-offs between supportive and provisioning ecosystem services of forage species in marine food webs. Ecol. Appl. 24: 1543-1557.
Perretti, CT, SB Munch, and G Sugihara. 2014. Reply to Hartig and Dormann: The true model myth. PNAS 110: E3976-E3977
Salinas, S and SB Munch. 2014. Phenotypic complexity: integrated responses of life-history characters to multiple environmental factors. Evol. Ecol. Res. 16: 267-284
Vincenzi, S., Mangel, M., Crivelli, A.J., Munch, S.B., Skaug, H. 2014. Determining individual variation in growth and its implications for life history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method. PLoS Comp. Biol. 10: e1003828.
Thorson, J.T., K. Ono, and S.B. Munch 2014. A Bayesian approach to identifying and compensating for model misspecification in population models. Ecology. 95:329-341.
2013
Salinas, S., S.C. Brown, M. Mangel, and S.B. Munch 2013. Non-genetic effects and changing environments. Non-genetic Inheritance 1:38-50
Perretti, C.T., S.B. Munch, and G. Sugihara. 2013. Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data. PNAS 110: 5253–5257.
Deyle, E.R., M. Fogarty, C.Hsieh, L. Kaufman, A.D. MacCall, S.B. Munch, C.T. Perretti, H. Ye, and G. Sugihara. 2013. Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine. PNAS 110: 6430-6435.
Shelton, AO., W.H. Satterthwaite, M.P Beakes, S.B. Munch, S.M. Sogard, and M.Mangel. 2013. Separating intrinsic and environmental contributions to growth and their population consequences. Am.Nat. 181: 799-814.
Sugeno, M and SB Munch 2013. A semiparametric Bayesian method for detecting Allee effects. Ecology 94: 1196-1204.
Gao, J. and S.B. Munch. 2013. Genetic and maternal variation in early growth in the Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 485:211-222.
Shelton, A.O., D. Kinzey, C. Reiss, S.B. Munch, G. Watters, and M. Mangel. 2013. Among-year variation in growth of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba based on length-frequency data. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 481: 53-67.
Perretti, C.T., G. Sugihara, and S.B. Munch. 2013. Nonparametric forecasting outperforms parametric methods for a simulated multispecies system. Ecology 94: 794-800.
Sugeno, M. and Munch SB. 2013. A semiparametric Bayesian approach to estimating maximum reproductive rates at low population sizes. Ecol. Appl. 23:699-709
Perez, KO and SB Munch. 2013. Validating back-calculation models using population data. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 142:82-94
2012
Sugihara, G., R. May, H. Ye, C. Hsieh, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty, and S.B. Munch. 2012. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science 338:496-500
Salinas, S. and S.B. Munch. 2012. Thermal legacies: transgenerational effects of temperature on growth in a vertebrate. Ecol. Lett. 15:159–163.
Hice LA, TA Duffy, SB Munch and DO Conover 2012. Spatial scale and divergent patterns of variation in adapted traits in the ocean. Ecol. Lett. 15: 568-575.
Pikitch, E. Rountos, K.J., Essington, T.E., Santora, C., Pauly, D., Watson, R., Sumaila, U.R., Boersma, P.D., Boyd, I.L., Conover, D.O., Cury, P., Heppell, S.S., Houde, E.D., Mangel, M., Plaganyi, E., Sainsbury, K., Steneck, R.S., Geers, T.M., Gownaris, N., and Munch, S.B. 2012. The global contribution of forage fish to marine fisheries and ecosystems. Fish and Fisheries 15:43-64.
Perretti, C. T., and S. B. Munch. 2012. Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems. Ecol. Appl. 22:1772–1779.
Salinas,S., K.O. Perez, T.A. Duffy, S.J. Sabatino, L.A. Hice, S.B. Munch, and D.O. Conover. 2012. The response of correlated traits following cessation of fishery-induced selection. Evol. Appl. 5: 657–663
Sigourney, D.B., S.B. Munch, and B.H. Letcher. 2012. Combining a Bayesian nonparametric method with a hierarchical framework to estimate individual and temporal variation in growth. Ecol. Mod. 247: 125-134.
Hurst, T. P., Munch, S. B., & Lavelle, K. A. 2012. Thermal reaction norms for growth vary among cohorts of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Mar. Biol. 1-11.
Fronczyk, K, A Kottas, and SB Munch 2012. Flexible modeling for stock-recruitment relationships using Bayesian nonparametric mixtures. Env. Ecol. Stat. 19:183-204.
Shelton, A.O., S.B. Munch, D. Keith, M. Mangel. 2012. Maternal age, fecundity, egg quality, and recruitment: linking stock structure to recruitment using an age-structured Ricker model. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69: 1631-1641,
2011
Sugihara, G., J. Beddington, C.H. Hsieh, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, R.M. May, S.B. Munch, C. Perretti, A. Rosenberg, S. Sandin, H. Ye. 2011. Are exploited fish populations stable? PNAS: 108: E1224-E1225
2010
Clarke, L.M., S.B. Munch, S.R. Thorrold, and D.O. Conover 2010. High connectivity among locally adapted populations of a marine fish (Menidia menidia). Ecology 91: 3526-3537
Perez, K.O. and Munch, S.B. 2010. Extreme selection in the early lives of fishes. Evolution. 64:2450-2457
Marshall, D.J., Heppell, S.S., Munch, S.B., and Warner, R.R. 2010. The relationship between maternal phenotype and offspring quality: Do older mothers really produce the best offspring? Ecology 91: 2862-2873.
2009
Munch, S.B. and S. Salinas 2009. Latitudinal variation in lifespan within species is explained by the metabolic theory of ecology. PNAS 106: 13860-13864.
Conover, D.O., S.A. Arnott, and S.B. Munch. 2009. Reversal of evolutionary downsizing caused by selective harvest of large fish. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276:2015-202
Munch, S.B. and A. Kottas 2009. A Bayesian modeling approach for determining productivity regimes and their characteristics. Ecol. Appl. 19:527-537
Clarke, L.M., Walther, B.D., Munch, S.B., Thorrold, S.R., and Conover, D.O. 2009. Chemical signatures in the otoliths of a coastal marine fish, Menidia menidia, from the northeastern United States: spatial and temporal differences. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 384:261-271.
2008
Munch, S.B. and L. Clarke 2008. A Bayesian approach to identifying mixtures from otolith chemistry data. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 65: 2742-2751.
2007
Vogel, E. R. , S. B. Munch, and C. H. Janson. 2007. Understanding escalated aggression over food resources in white-faced capuchin monkeys. Anim. Beh. 74:71-80.
Conover, D.O. and S.B. Munch. 2007 Faith, evolution, and the burden of proof. Fisheries 32: 90-91.
2006
Munch, S.B. and M. Mangel 2006. Evaluation of mortality trajectories in evolutionary demography. PNAS 103: 16604-16607.
D.O. Conover, L.M. Clarke, S.B. Munch, and G.N.Wagner 2006. Spatial and temporal scales of adaptive divergence in marine fishes and the implications for conservation. J. Fish. Biol. 69 (suppl. C): 21-47.
Walsh, M.R., S.B. Munch, S. Chiba, and D.O. Conover. 2006. Maladaptive changes in multiple traits caused by fishing: impediments to population recovery. Ecol. Lett. 9:142-148
2005
Munch, S.B., T. Kottas and M. Mangel. 2005. Bayesian non-parametric analysis of stock-recruitment relationships. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 62:1808-1821
Mangel, M. and S.B. Munch 2005. A life-history perspective on short- and long-term consequences of growth compensation. Am. Nat. 166 (6): E155-E176.
Munch, S.B., M.L. Snover, G. Watters, M. Mangel. 2005. A unified treatment of top-down and bottom-up control of reproduction in populations. Ecol. Lett. 8: 691-695
Munch, S.B., M. Walsh, and D.O. Conover. 2005. Harvest selection, genetic correlations, and recruitment: one less thing to worry about? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 62:802-810.
Conover, D.O., S.A. Arnott, M.R. Walsh, and S. B. Munch. 2005. Darwinian Fishery Science: lessons from the Atlantic silverside. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 62:730-737.
2004
Munch, S.B. and D.O. Conover. 2004. Non-linear growth cost in Menidia menidia: theory and empirical evidence. Evolution 58:661-664.
2003
Munch, S.B. and D.O. Conover. 2003. Rapid growth results in increased susceptibility to predation in Menidia menidia. Evolution. 57: 2119-2127.
Munch, S.B., Mangel, M., Conover, D.O. 2003. Quantifying natural selection on body size from field data with an application to winter mortality in Menidia menidia. Ecology 84: 2168-2177.
Conover, D.O., T. Gilmore, S.B.Munch 2003. Estimating the relative contribution of spring and summer-spawned cohorts to the Atlantic coast bluefish stock. Trans.Am.Fish.Soc. 132: 1117–1124.
2002
Conover, D.O. and S.B. Munch 2002. Sustaining fisheries yields over evolutionary time scales. Science. 297:94-96.
Munch, S.B. and D.O. Conover 2002. Accounting for local physiological adaptation in bioenergetic models: testing hypotheses for growth rate evolution by virtual transplant experiments. Can.J.Fish.Aquat.Sci. 59:393-403.
Dunning, D., Q. Ross, S.B. Munch, and L.R. Ginzburg 2002. Measurement error affects risk estimates for recruitment to the Hudson River stock of striped bass. The Scientific World. 2(S1):238-253.
2001
Munch, S.B. and D.O. Conover 2001. Recruitment dynamics of bluefish, Pomatomus saltatrix from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod, 1973-1995. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57:393-402.
